Click here: The Weekly Beacon – November 4 2022
We will be giving some macro economic market updates on a weekly basis. No equity recommendations will be given in this commentary, and we encourage you to contact us if you have questions regarding any observations.
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This weeks issue: 2022 Midterms, Republican Senate Odds Tick Up, Red Tsunami, Washington Political Landscape, Blue States Go Red, Stock Market Returns by Presidential Year, Brazil Election, Socialist Leader, Latin America Politics, President Lula, Unrest in Brazil, Dow Jones Best Month in Decades, Dow vs. Nasdaq, Elon Musk, Twitter, Verification Cost for Twitter, Elon Fires Back, Facebook vs. Twitter, Elon Firing Employees, Billionaires Lose Big, DiDi Global CEO, John Foley Peloton, Peloton Value, Peloton Stock Crash, Chinese Billionaires, FED Policy, Powell Decision, FED Pivot, Biden wants Pivot, Interest Rate Hike.
And just like that, we are almost halfway through President Biden’s first term. Even if they want to admit it or not, we bet he and his administration would change some decisions they made through the first 22 months of his Presidency. We highlight this as an almost halfway point as the U.S. hit the polls next Tuesday for Midterm Elections where every seat in the House of Representatives is up for grabs, 1/3 of the Senate will be decided, and numerous Gubernatorial races will be decided. Local and national politics will be on center stage and there will be massive impacts across the country. Capital markets participants will be on the edge of their seats as the election will have an impact on almost every sector.
Even the most liberal states are swinging to conservative candidates. We would call this, over correcting and usually happens when the President and Congress go too far in one direction. We do not blame voters. Energy is a mess, the economy is a mess, inflation is a mess, 401k’s are crashing, and those are just financial issues. Even some voters are seeing a preference for conservative social policies after the past 2 years.
New York and Washington, deep blue states are a toss-up. Biden won 61% of votes in New York in 2020 and 58% in Washington state.