MacNicol’s Quarterly Commentary – July 2023
With this commentary, we plan to communicate with you every month about our thoughts on the markets, some snapshots of metrics, a section on behavioral investing, and finally an update on MacNicol & Associates Asset Management (MAAM). We hope you enjoy this information, and it allows you to better understand what we see going on in the marketplace.
“At the core of any central bank is a governmental license to print money — an alchemy of such general wonder and fascination that there is no shortage of running commentary”.
Making Money, a book by former Bank of Canada Governor John Crow
Tiff: Central Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem was once the head of the University of Toronto’s business school: maybe he should consider a return to academia. Whether or not the bank’s current policy course stands to benefit Canadian consumers and businesses is today more of a wild guess. Governor Macklem and company raised rates because they felt inflation continues to be high and that the Canadian economy is more “resistant” to rate hikes (note quotes). Even if you accept the pretense that the economy needs further monetary curtailment, the bank might not be considering an important variable here.
Variable-rate mortgages became wildly popular during pandemic era lockdowns. Variable-rate mortgages are tied to the Bank of Canada’s trendsetting interest rate which the bank chopped down in 2020 as the economic impact of public health restrictions and business closures ground the economy to a halt. But since the beginning of 2022, Canada’s interest rate picture has looked a lot different.
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